Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 8.996964 10.337867 11.782706 13.451908 15.323651 17.354192 19.720056
2025-12-14 6.932186 8.724094 10.806877 13.392884 16.502703 20.106390 24.581678
2025-12-21 5.583954 7.469543 9.774238 12.773482 16.545580 21.102342 26.989874
2025-12-28 4.970530 7.010136 9.613233 13.138716 17.742436 23.498786 31.181754
2026-01-04 4.456273 6.585385 9.407711 13.364702 18.701209 25.572032 34.996775
2026-01-11 3.924728 6.064966 9.006140 13.266273 19.186887 27.018756 38.034604
2026-01-18 3.473781 5.599374 8.620829 13.131704 19.576705 28.315506 40.889804
2026-01-25 3.132195 5.251959 8.361317 13.134746 20.129636 29.829099 44.074955
2026-02-01 2.866004 4.987336 8.191814 13.240266 20.812566 31.530275 47.568077
2026-02-08 2.587440 4.672076 7.914110 13.153289 21.192316 32.799082 50.482441
2026-02-15 2.336482 4.374171 7.634169 13.033310 21.500260 33.958606 53.265699
2026-02-22 2.156019 4.174776 7.490480 13.107572 22.093839 35.546337 56.718640
2026-03-01 2.042681 4.084198 7.521678 13.470242 23.165827 37.914638 61.461224
2026-03-08 1.842062 3.817868 7.238218 13.298222 23.380180 38.988216 64.297751
2026-03-15 1.597982 3.444072 6.737144 12.721097 22.896774 38.945758 65.401686
2026-03-22 1.524237 3.384999 6.780924 13.071001 23.944700 41.334994 70.355219
2026-03-29 1.439020 3.294259 6.759037 13.301034 24.797471 43.439756 74.928673
2026-04-05 1.316509 3.115465 6.560378 13.201225 25.079197 44.627313 78.075741
2026-04-12 1.201708 2.939887 6.352576 13.067862 25.289580 45.697277 81.059907
2026-04-19 1.113828 2.811810 6.224744 13.070667 25.733032 47.162141 84.729079
2026-04-26 1.044883 2.717585 6.155103 13.175819 26.359071 48.950168 88.983874
2026-05-03 0.961693 2.582133 5.991661 13.089183 26.629952 50.139224 92.271892
2026-05-10 0.882700 2.447330 5.818162 12.969724 26.830185 51.207478 95.382916